U.S. Retail Sales Data Release

The U.S. Census Bureau will release the Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for July 2025 on August 15 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time (12:30 UTC), detailing sales across retail and food services sectors [U.S. Census Bureau]. Adjusted for seasonal variations but not inflation, the report reflects consumer spending, a major driver of U.S. economic growth. Economists forecast a 0.3% month-over-month increase, down from June’s 0.6% rise, with year-over-year growth around 3.5% [The Global Statistics]. Stronger-than-expected data could bolster the U.S. dollar, potentially pressuring crypto prices, while weaker figures might fuel risk-on sentiment, lifting digital assets. The report’s influence on Federal Reserve policy expectations makes it a must-watch for crypto investors.

Recent News

Retail sales have shown resilience in 2025, with June hitting $720.1 billion, up 0.6% from May and 3.9% from June 2024 [U.S. Census Bureau]. Motor vehicle sales led with an 8.8% annual growth, while e-commerce held steady at 16.4% market share [The Global Statistics]. However, July’s preliminary Chicago Fed data projects a 0.1% drop in retail sales (excluding autos) and a 0.3% decline when adjusted for inflation, hinting at cooling consumer demand [Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago]. Recent X posts highlight trader concerns about tariff impacts and slowing spending, which could temper bullish crypto sentiment if confirmed.

Future Plans

The next retail sales reports are scheduled for September 16 and October 16, 2025, covering August and September data [U.S. Census Bureau]. Morgan Stanley forecasts a slowdown in consumer spending growth to 3.7% for 2025, down from 5.7% in 2024, citing tariff pressures and economic uncertainty [Morgan Stanley]. For crypto, this suggests a cautious outlook, but a weaker-than-expected report could raise hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially boosting risk assets. The Q3 2025 retail e-commerce report, due November 18, will further clarify online spending trends, relevant for blockchain-based payment solutions.

Onchain Data

Direct onchain data linking retail sales to crypto is limited, as macro events primarily drive sentiment. Bitcoin’s transaction volume averaged $10 billion daily in July 2025, with a 5% rise in active wallet addresses, per Glassnode. Ethereum staking grew 3% month-over-month, reflecting confidence in long-term yields despite macro volatility. A strong retail sales report could reduce crypto’s appeal as a hedge, while a weak report might drive speculative trading, increasing onchain activity.

Community Sentiment

X discussions show traders bracing for volatility, with some like @rovercrc noting the interplay between retail sales, inflation, and Fed policy [X posts]. Optimists see weak data as a catalyst for crypto rallies, expecting rate cut speculation to lift Bitcoin. Others caution that strong consumer spending could delay easing, pressuring altcoins. Sentiment is mixed, with traders preparing for both bullish and bearish scenarios based on the report’s outcome.

Additional Insights

Retail sales data influences broader markets, including equities and commodities, with crypto often reacting to shifts in risk appetite. A robust report could strengthen traditional markets, diverting capital from crypto, while a slowdown might highlight decentralized assets’ appeal. Risk disclaimer: Macro data releases can spark rapid price swings; traders should avoid overleveraged positions and rely on verified market signals.

This release is critical for crypto enthusiasts. Whether you’re trading or holding, understanding consumer spending trends will help you navigate the market’s next move.