S&P Global US Manufacturing & Services PMI

The S&P Global US Manufacturing and Services PMI, released monthly, measures business activity in two key sectors. Manufacturing PMI gauges factory output, orders, and employment, while Services PMI tracks consumer-facing industries like finance and tech. Readings above 50 signal expansion; below 50, contraction. In June 2025, Manufacturing PMI hit 52.9, a three-year high, while Services PMI dipped to 52.9 from 53.7. Forecasts for July suggest Manufacturing PMI at 52.5 and Services PMI at 53.0. Strong data could bolster the US dollar, potentially pressuring crypto prices, while weak readings might fuel rate-cut hopes, boosting risk assets like BTC and ETH.

Recent News

June’s PMI data showed manufacturing rebounding, driven by rising orders, though tariff concerns sparked inventory buildup and inflation. Services growth slowed, reflecting caution amid trade policy shifts. Crypto markets reacted mildly, with Bitcoin holding steady at $103,720 after a 1% dip. DeFi platforms like Aave saw a 10% rise in US lending pool activity, signaling economic uncertainty driving crypto adoption. The Fed’s steady 4.75% rate stance, despite mixed signals, keeps markets on edge for PMI-driven clues.

Future Plans

The Fed’s 2025 roadmap hinges on economic indicators like PMI. Analysts expect one rate cut by Q4 if growth slows, potentially lifting crypto markets. Stablecoin issuers like Circle are expanding US operations, with USDC’s market cap up 6% in Q2 2025, eyeing PMI-driven volatility for growth. Ethereum-based DeFi projects, including Chainlink, anticipate increased demand if services weaken, as investors seek decentralized alternatives.

Onchain Data

While PMI-specific onchain data is unavailable, broader metrics reflect macro sensitivity. Bitcoin’s US exchange volume rose 9% in June, per Glassnode, tied to economic speculation. Ethereum’s DeFi TVL hit $122B, with Uniswap’s US user base growing 13%. Stablecoin transfers (USDT, USDC) in US wallets surged 18%, suggesting hedging against macro shifts.

Community Sentiment

On X, crypto sentiment is cautious but optimistic. Influencers like @CryptoWizardd predict a weak PMI could push BTC to $110K, citing rate-cut bets, while 40% of polled users expect a dollar rally if PMIs exceed forecasts, capping altcoin gains. DeFi fans highlight stablecoin growth as a bullish sign.

Market Trends & Insights

Historically, strong PMI data (e.g., June 2023’s 53.0 Manufacturing PMI) strengthened the dollar, dropping BTC 4%. Weak PMIs often spark 10-15% crypto rallies by fueling easing expectations. Altcoins like SOL and ADA may see sharper swings than BTC. Investors could benefit from diversifying into DeFi or stablecoins to navigate volatility.

Risk Disclaimer

Macro events like PMI releases can trigger crypto price swings. Unexpected data may cause rapid market moves, so trade cautiously and verify signals independently.

Don’t miss July 24, 2025! Will PMI data spark a crypto rally or pullback? Drop your thoughts below!