Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Cash Rate Decision

The RBA’s Monetary Policy Board will announce its cash rate decision on August 12, 2025, at 2:30 PM AEST (4:30 AM UTC) after a two-day meeting. The cash rate, currently at 3.85%, is expected to drop by 25 basis points to 3.60%, as markets fully price in a cut based on easing inflation [Canstar]. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported June 2025 headline inflation at 2.1% and trimmed mean inflation at 2.7%, both within the RBA’s 2-3% target [EFG International]. A rate cut could weaken the Australian dollar, boosting risk assets like cryptocurrencies, while a surprise hold or hike might strengthen the AUD and pressure crypto prices. Volatility is likely, given the RBA’s recent unexpected hold in July [ABC News].

Recent News

The RBA cut rates twice in 2025, first in February to 4.10% and then in May to 3.85%, reflecting confidence in declining inflation from a 2022 peak of 7.8% [Financial Newswire, Lextech]. June’s unemployment rose to 4.3%, signaling a softening labor market, which supports expectations for further easing [CommBank]. The July hold surprised markets, with the board citing the need for quarterly CPI data over less reliable monthly figures [EFG International]. Global trade tensions, including U.S. tariffs, have added uncertainty, potentially impacting Australia’s commodity-driven economy [Lextech]. These factors have kept crypto markets on edge, with Bitcoin and Ethereum showing resilience despite macro headwinds.

Future Plans

The RBA’s next meetings are scheduled for September 24 and November 5, 2025, with economists forecasting additional cuts, potentially bringing the cash rate to 3.10-3.35% by year-end [Canstar]. The board remains data-dependent, monitoring inflation, employment, and global risks like trade disruptions [Lextech]. For crypto, lower rates could foster a risk-on environment, encouraging investment in decentralized assets. However, the RBA’s cautious approach suggests gradual easing, with no commitment to aggressive cuts unless economic conditions weaken significantly [CommBank].

Onchain Data

Direct onchain data linking RBA decisions to crypto is scarce, as macro events primarily influence sentiment. Bitcoin’s daily transaction volume averaged $10 billion in July 2025, with a 5% increase in active wallet addresses, per Glassnode. Ethereum’s staking deposits grew 3% month-over-month, indicating sustained interest despite macro uncertainty. These metrics suggest crypto markets are holding steady, but a rate cut could drive short-term trading volume spikes as investors react to AUD movements.

Community Sentiment

X posts reveal strong anticipation for a rate cut, with users like @YaronBuilds and @ChadStreetBets predicting a drop to 3.60%, potentially boosting crypto and commodity markets [X posts]. Some traders see a weaker AUD as a catalyst for Bitcoin rallies, while others caution about volatility if the RBA holds rates again. Influencers note the interplay between global monetary policies, with U.S. Fed decisions also shaping crypto sentiment. The community is split, with some eyeing dip-buying opportunities and others preparing for AUD-driven swings.

Additional Insights

A rate cut could enhance Australia’s appeal for crypto investment by lowering borrowing costs and stimulating economic activity. However, global uncertainties, like U.S. tariffs, may temper optimism [Lextech]. Compared to the U.S. CPI’s impact, the RBA’s decision has a more regional focus but still influences global crypto markets via AUD pairs. Risk disclaimer: Macro events like rate decisions can trigger sharp volatility; traders should avoid overleveraged positions and monitor trusted market signals.

This RBA decision is a critical moment for crypto enthusiasts. A cut could fuel bullish sentiment, but surprises could spark turbulence. Stay informed and trade wisely.